In predicting who is going to be the next US president, all we have to go on are the opinion polls the rest comes down to hunches and conscious or unconscious prejudice.
What more, opinion air jordan 2 ii retro qf candy pack classic green black white polls in America are particularly unreliable. Polling just a few thousand people in a country where around 140 million are expected to vote is a risky business.
There are also differences in the representative sample used by the pollsters. For aOlernKienOP Air Jordan 2010 The considerable of Jordan shoes example, that venerable organisation Gallup aOlernKienOP air jordan 9 ix retro black citrus Top 100 Athletes seems consistently to favour the Republicans by as much as 6% more than air jordan 12 xii flu game its rivals in national opinion polls.
As things stand, aOlernKienOP air jordan 3 infrared 23 white cement grey infrared 23 black Suit Ideas national opinion polls are mostly a dead heat, when a margin of error aOlernKienOP air jordan 11 legend blue white black legend blue Is Samsung’s Gear Fit A G is allowed for.
Mr Obama popularity declined after his poor performance in the debate on October 3 and he has not recovered his big lead since then. But Mr Romney had no “momentum” by the beginning of November.
At the weekend, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) National Poll Average stood at 47.5% for Mr Obama and 47.3% for Mr Romney.
Mr Obama is clearly not on course aOlernKienOP air jordan 3 iii retro 2001 black cement grey DIY Halloween Costumes for Wo to do aOlernKienOP air jordan force 5 black cactus Orchids on display as well as he did in 2008 against John McCain when he polled 52.9% of votes cast, compared to 45.7% for the Republican.
Indeed conventional wisdom has now placed at least two of the states he won then Indiana and North Carolina firmly in the Republican column.
National opinion polls reflect the popular vote across the country, and winning that is not how you get to be president. You win the election by winning the vote state by state, thus stacking up the majority of the 538 electoral college votes.
It perfectly possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. That what Al Gore did against George W Bush in 2000. And it what some Republicans fear Mr Romney may do this time.
So to work out who is going to sleep in the White House next January, you need to follow the state polls.
Working from this air jordan 17 low black chrome data, America leading analysts have come up air jordan 13 infrared black infrared 23 black with different snapshots of the state of the electoral race.
With 270 college votes needed to win, RCP allocates 201 to Mr Obama, 191 to Mr Romney and 146 votes in 11 states to play for.
Calling states on a solid and leaning basis, the Washington Post gives Mr Obama 243 electoral votes, Mr Romney 181, with 89 up for aOlernKienOP air jordan 10 x retro shadow A Penny in Her Shoe grabs in the toss up states Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Nate Silver at the New York Times controversial FiveThirtyEight blog makes a different probability based analysis of the same polling data.
He says there is now an 85.1% chance of Mr Obama being re elected compared to just 14.9% air jordan 15 retro black varsity red that Mr Romney will become the 45th POTUS. He calculates final electoral vote share at 306.9 for Mr Obama compared to 231.1 for Mr Romney.
You get a similar result if you apply the latest state polls to the toss up states in the Washington Post and RCP models. With two days to go these state polls do not point to a dead heat they suggest that Mr Obama is going to be re elected.
In the latest polls from most of the swing states Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and above all Ohio the President is ahead, not by much but consistently. He has also edged ahead in Florida, where he held his biggest rally on Sunday.
The Romney campaign Air Jordan 20s shifted its focus to Pennsylvania at the weekend, in an attempt to suggest that more states than the usual air jordan retro 14 thunder black vibrant yellow white suspects may be in play. But here and in Minnesota and Michigan, which the Republicans are also citing, the latest polls are also against them.
David Axelrod, Mr Obama campaign chief, has promised to shave off his moustache if aOlernKienOP Air Jordan 8s How to Select the best running shoes for you the President loses any of these three.
So why is there such confidence among Republicans that their air jordan 12 retro taxi 2013 man will win? Basically they say the opinion polls air jordan 6 white sport blue black are wrong and they point air jordan 9 14 countdown package to surveys of early voting which show that Mr Obama support amongst key voters is well down on 2008.
This argument, best articulated by George W Bush old aide Karl Rove in the Wall St Journal, says the pollsters are over representing democrats in their samples. On the ground they say Democrats are de motivated to vote, while Republicans are fired up, and independents are breaking their way.
No wonder so many pundits aOlernKienOP air jordan 5 retro tropical teal 2013 Wearing Belts in Women are sitting on the fence, aOlernKienOP Air Jordan 8s How to Clean vulcanized shoes pointing out that this is a very close race according to the polls with Mr Obama edge in most circumstances in the margins of error.
Those who are making a guess, have to fall back on hunches and rules of thumb.
There are plenty of personal bellwethers to choose from.
No president since Franklin D Roosevelt has ever been re elected with unemployment this high (although at 7.9% it is only a tenth of a per cent above the level where they have been returned).
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